Key takeout
Reading the current scenario…
The Brand A picture
Molecule A against molecule B (Brand B, Competitor B) and molecule C (Brand C, Competitor C) in HR+/HER2− breast cancer. Patients on therapy are estimated as PBS scripts across a drug's dose bands (one pack is about one month of therapy). Source: PBS item dispensing data, Jul-2018 to Jun-26.
Active PBS patients per month
Brand A against Brand B in early breast cancer, from each brand's first month of dispensing.
Table view
Where the patients are
Scripts in the last 12 months by state, for the selected indication.
Table view
What the data says
Computed from the dispensing series above and the baseline assumptions in Step 3.
Key market factors affecting revenue
Context for the PBS figures above. They are the government’s reported outlay on Brand A — — across metastatic and early BC in the last twelve months — and three things shape what that number means.
- Initial commitment. On the July 2018 metastatic listing the federal government allocated a multi-year budget to subsidise Brand A for roughly 3,000 patients a year.
- Indications expansion. In mid-2025 the PBS expanded access to high-risk early-stage breast cancer. That wider baseline is expected to push utilisation and government spend higher in the coming reporting cycles: the early-BC series here is only — old and still climbing.
- Special pricing arrangements. These figures come from public PBS data and do not fully reflect net manufacturer revenue. High-cost oncology medicines like Brand A are bound by confidential risk-sharing arrangements, so the sponsor pays undisclosed rebates back to the Australian Government where volume or expenditure caps are exceeded. Use the value-basis slider in Step 3 to model a net share.
The brand in four facts
SWOT, Australian medical-marketing lens
Condensed from the sponsor’s brand analysis. Each Orvessa lever in Step 2 is built against one of these lines.
Strengths
- Covers the full HR+/HER2− spectrum: metastatic since 2018, early BC since July 2025.
- Broader funded early-BC pool than Brand B's narrower label; once-daily dosing.
- TRIAL-A benefit that grew over time, with OS trending favourably.
Weaknesses
- Fourteen months late into adjuvant; Brand B habits already forming.
- Heaviest monitoring in the class: baseline, day-14 and cycle-2 ECG, QTc, electrolytes, CBC, LFTs.
- No Australian digital adherence tool for the three-year course.
Opportunities
- Turn the monitoring burden into a supported-care offer that neutralises the main objection.
- Own the OS-trend and breadth-of-eligibility narrative among prescribers.
- Three-year persistence upside on a newly funded pool.
Threats
- Brand B first-mover entrenchment and switching inertia.
- PBS authority complexity causing rejections and dampening uptake.
- Brand C in metastatic; generic molecule A on the horizon.
Choose the programme
Every lever is a Orvessa product or a bespoke build applied to Brand A. Switch it on to include it, then set the effect you are prepared to believe and the cost you expect. Effects and costs are starting assumptions from the Orvessa pitch and price list, not commitments; everything is editable.
Benefit and return
The programme you chose against a base case that holds Brand A's current new-start rate flat. Value is incremental Brand A patient-months multiplied by the PBS benefit actually paid per script in the latest month, so it is the government’s gross outlay at published prices, not net revenue to the sponsor after rebates. Use the value-basis slider to apply your own net factor.
Baseline assumptions
Brand A patients on therapy, base case vs programme
Observed to date, then projected over the horizon. The gap between the lines is the incremental patient base the programme creates.
Table view
Cumulative value against cumulative cost
Where the lines cross is payback. Cost is year-1 spend spread over the first twelve months, then ongoing spend.
Table view
Where the value comes from
Incremental value attributed to each lever, pro-rata to what it would deliver on its own.
Scenario summary
Base case holds Brand A's recent new-start rate and completion flat. Programme applies the selected levers.
Disclaimer
The figures on this page are an illustrative model, not a forecast or a commitment. New-start and completion effects are assumptions chosen by the user; the base case extrapolates recent PBS dispensing and modelled retention. Value is the PBS benefit actually paid and overstates net revenue to the sponsor, which is reduced by pharmacy and wholesaler margin and by the confidential rebate under Brand A’s special pricing arrangement; use the value-basis slider for a net view. Orvessa prices are indicative and confirmed on scoping. The analysis is AI-assisted from public PBS data and public clinical sources; verify all clinical, PBS and regulatory detail before acting on it. Patient-facing tools described here are support companions, not medical devices, and any claims made to clinicians or patients would go through the sponsor medical-legal review. Illustrative worked example. Not for clinical or promotional use.
How to implement
Orvessa builds fast; the calendar is set by sponsor approvals and pilot access. The plan below is generated from the levers you selected. Weeks count from the scoping workshop, and each lever’s go-live week is when it starts earning in the Step 3 model.
Scoping workshop
Half a day with brand, medical and field leads. Confirm levers, effect assumptions, pilot clinics and the content pack. Output: a signed scope and this page as the agreed baseline.
Configure and approve
Orvessa configures products and starts bespoke builds. The sponsor runs medical-legal review on the content pack and confirms programme hand-offs. The baseline is captured before anything goes live.
Launch
Medcast channel and Medflow placement switch on as content clears. The Hub companion and bespoke builds pilot in two or three clinics, then open up.
Scale and measure
Onboard clinics against the territory plan, review the KPIs monthly and re-run this tool with observed numbers in place of assumptions.
Sixteen-week plan for the selected levers
Solid bar = configure or build, including the sponsor approvals it depends on. Faded bar = live. Change the selection in Step 2 and the plan follows.
What the sponsor brings
The gates that set the calendar. Tick them off as they clear; ticks are saved with the scenario.
Next step: a scoping workshop
Size the build and agree a launch plan into the post-listing window while the early-BC market is still forming. Print this page as the pre-read, or send the link so colleagues see the same scenario.
How the numbers are made, and what they are not
Patients on therapy each month are estimated as total PBS scripts across a drug's dose bands for that indication (one dispensed pack is about one month of therapy). Baseline new starts per month are estimated from flow: the recent trend in patients on therapy plus the patients who leave therapy each month under the retention curve. You can override the estimate in the baseline assumptions.
Retention. Early breast cancer is a fixed course, 36 months for Brand A, with non-completion front-loaded (defaults 25% and a front-loading factor of 2.5, the same retention model as our PBS explorer). Metastatic disease is treat-to-progression, modelled as exponential decay off the median. Completion levers reduce the early-BC non-completion rate by the points you set, for new starters and for patients already on therapy from the month the programme goes live. New-start levers add to the monthly new-start rate by the percentages you set; percentages add, they do not compound. Timing. A lever earns nothing until its go-live month (from the Step 4 plan), then ramps to full effect over the months you set in the baseline assumptions (default three).
Value is incremental Brand A patient-months multiplied by the PBS benefit actually paid per script in the latest month for that indication (early BC about — a month, metastatic about —), then multiplied by the value-basis share. Those figures come from the benefit column of the PBS item report, so they are what the government actually paid, not scripts priced at a published DPMQ. They are still gross: they are not net manufacturer revenue after the confidential rebate. Costs are indicative Orvessa prices; final pricing is confirmed on scoping. Attribution gives each lever a share of the total pro-rata to what it would deliver on its own. Break-even patients is total programme cost divided by the value of one additional early-BC starter within the horizon.
Brand A early BC listed on 1 July 2025 and the data runs to Jun-26, so no early-BC cohort has finished the 36-month course; completion figures are projections. Effect sizes are assumptions you set, not observed results. Illustrative worked example. Not for clinical or promotional use.